Radio Show Files |
11/20/2009 01:58 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 1 Friday 20, November 2009 |
Vince trys to pick the winning number for the Passport giveaway. Vince explains why he does the Alumni event and the Radio Show. Explains how to check up on claims of money donated to charity. |
11/20/2009 01:58 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 2 Friday 20, November 2009 |
Vince welcomes Matthew Klein to discuss how Collective2 provides a common yardstick to measure performance. Poor performance may not reflect bad intent just poor performance. Matthew describes the Lossy Award - The Worst Trading System in the World. You can nominate any manager or system. |
11/20/2009 01:58 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 3 Friday 20, November 2009 |
Matthew describes the features of the site. It is a third party auditor for trading systems. Has a screening function. You can mirror the buys/sells of a system you like.Of 9000 systems, very few are consistent thru time. Matthew explains why it is so hard to make money with trading. Most subscribers in ETFs. |
11/20/2009 01:58 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 4 Friday 20, November 2009 |
Oliver joins Vince for an update from Germany. Correlation between assets classes is ending. Some weakness in indicators the past weeks. Dollar/Euro going in favor of the dollar. Next Tuesday and Wednesday have more than 13 economic announcements and a FOMC meeting. Volumes have declined significantly, more than the usual seasonal effect. Listen for the advance/decline status. |
11/18/2009 12:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 1 Wednesday, November 18, 2009 |
David joins Vince and starts in on the weakness of the dollar. Market has been drifting because of uncertainty about interest rates. Vince mentions that meeting attendees are asking how to handle this risk. David offers some solutions to the current market. |
11/18/2009 12:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 2 Wednesday, November 18, 2009 |
David feels that a proposed .25% transaction tax would significantly increase trading expenses. Focus on percent return not actual amount. We're all swing traders now. Your trading plan must adapt to regulatory environment. |
11/18/2009 12:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 3 Wednesday, November 18, 2009 |
David updates status of PHI. Up $1.50 since last week. Neural nets are showing CRN. Using the 5 minute chart, CRN is showing a classic Gartley pattern. |
11/18/2009 12:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 4 Wednesday, November 18, 2009 |
Vince makes the point about the difference between "smart" people and good performers. David analyzes TBT and it's exposure to Fed statements. Listen in for David's spin on gold. More kewl info at David's blog. |
11/17/2009 12:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 1 Tuesday, November 17, 2009 |
Oliver joins Vince to discuss the headwinds the market is experiencing. They cover the gambit - bond, dollar, and gold. Oliver projects price action for the next six months. He then discusses the SP500 chart below. |
11/17/2009 12:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 2 Tuesday, November 17, 2009 |
Commodities in 1H10 will have a retracement because of negative interest rates. Oil has negative seasonality this time of year. Copper producers have been flooding the market with supply. Notice how high the LSE inventories are. Strength of price is more a factor of speculation, then real demand. Fed not acting as if the weakness of dollar not a concern, Unemployment is more a factor. |
11/17/2009 12:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 3 Tuesday, November 17, 2009 |
China is preparing to crack down on Hong Kong as a tax haven. The US will continue to pressure China on the strength of the Chinese currency. Weak dollar is creating an asset bubble in China. Europe's view is US has the leverage on the Chinese because they have pegged the Chinese currency to the dollar. Automobile sector in China has been making up for the slack demand in developed countries. Oliver uses the Baltic Dry Index as an example how indicators change their value over time. |
11/17/2009 12:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 4 Tuesday, November 17, 2009 |
Oliver thinks the worst is over and that right decisions are being made by governments. Worse thing would be for the governments to lose focus on deflation. Japan for the last 20 years is a model Oliver is concerned may happen in the US. The current problems the banks are not providing credit. Europe has a different problem because it has a demographic problem that encourages inflation. The US does not have an inflation problem, so can use different solutions to recover. |
11/16/2009 12:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 1 Monday, November 16, 2009 |
Vince checks in with John Paul. John Paul updates Vince on his latest projects. |
11/16/2009 12:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 2 Monday, November 16, 2009 |
John O'Donnell gives a snippet of his presentation for the Dallas Alumni event. |
11/16/2009 12:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 3 Monday, November 16, 2009 |
John continues the theme of how globalization is affecting the US economy and consequently the US dollar |
11/16/2009 12:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 4 Monday, November 16, 2009 |
Vince and John finish the show on the theme of real estate. Buy on dips and do your homework. Patience is important in trading. Vince names some industrial and commercial REITS. |
11/13/2009 12:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 1 Friday, November 13, 2009 |
Vince welcomes John O'Donnell to the show. John points out the weakness in the real estate market. Commercial real estate is the next sector to default. Some suggest as much as $3T heading for default. |
11/13/2009 12:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 2 Friday, November 13, 2009 |
Oliver joins John and Vince to discuss Gold. Non-dollar denominated assets are 62% of inflows. Confidence crisis in the world causing upward pressure on gold and the inverse pressure on the dollar. John highlights the demand destruction and what this implies for deflation. |
11/13/2009 12:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 3 Friday, November 13, 2009 |
John shows how he uses the Baltic Dry Index as a denominator for value calculations. Vince then changes topics to China. Oliver thinks the short term is bumpy till 2012 for China. When things turn around, China will be one of the leaders. He doubts they can maintain 8% GDP growth forever. |
11/13/2009 12:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 4 Friday, November 13, 2009 |
John previews the 100 slides he's bringing in a wheelbarrow to the Alumni event. Sold out so arrive early. Oliver discusses changes on distributing the newsletter. You will have to get it instead of receiving as email attachment. New web address to facilitate finding PearlFisher website. |
11/12/2009 12:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 1 Thursday, November 12, 2009 |
Jeremy Ascher joins Vince to discuss Chartwhiz.com. Jerry discussed how he got into the business of forecasting. Chartwhiz.com uses technical analysis as major support for it's forecast. Covers oil, gold, and commodities. |
11/12/2009 12:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 2 Thursday, November 12, 2009 |
Vince updates on Alumni event, all seats are full. Door prizes at each location is $10k DVDs, classes, great stuff. Passport worth $25k to be given on the air. Jeremy discusses the importance of a trade plan. Chartwhiz is used to support entries and exit. |
11/12/2009 12:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 3 Thursday, November 12, 2009 |
JV (John Villeneuve)comes on as a guest to discuss trading plans and software to help create them. Mind mapping is one technique traders can use. Vince discuses trading plans and why they are so hard. |
11/12/2009 12:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 4 Thursday, November 12, 2009 |
JV talks about data mining software that can be used to forecast future prices. Orange and Rapid-I provide a graphical interface to basic statistical functions as well as advanced non-linear modeling. gretl is a similar type of data mining software. |
11/11/2009 12:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 1 Wednesday, November 11, 2009 |
David and Vince discuss GLD. Expect run until the dollar gets squared away. |
11/11/2009 12:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 2 Wednesday, November 11, 2009 |
David talks about income generation that minimizes FOREX risk. Beyond long end of the Treasury yield curve-TBD(There Be Dragons). TLT and TBT are discussed as a pair trade. Some dividends may be a good deal, if they are safe buy equity on dips(monthly timeframe). |
11/11/2009 12:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 3 Wednesday, November 11, 2009 |
Vince updates the status of registration for the Alumni event. David discusses possible breakout target for GLD. Vince says stay the course based on fundamentals. The Fed is driving the bus on the dollar with a weak dollar policy |
11/11/2009 12:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 4 Wednesday, November 11, 2009 |
Vince details how he selects money managers. David's screens are showing PHI (ADR). Neural nets screen for earnings news to confirm when pattern shows up. |
11/10/2009 02:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 1 Tuesday, November 10, 2009 |
Oliver Juergens talks about James Tobin economics. Oliver updates everyone on the Pearlfisher portfolio. Gold working as planned because of inflation expectations as reflected by recent Fed statements. Major impact on price should develop over the next few months. Listen to find out if you should still be on the sidelines. |
11/10/2009 02:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 2 Tuesday, November 10, 2009 |
We don't hide our performance at Pearlfisher, we are willing to take on all comers. Like Dizzy Dean said, It ain't bragging if you can do it. Oliver discusses how the G20 plans to deal with the dollar's decline. James Tobin's idea are suggested as one solution. Vince asks Oliver about EU fiscal policy/description |
11/10/2009 02:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 3 Tuesday, November 10, 2009 |
Cotton is hot?! Oliver still likes Gold. Cotton, coffee, and cocoa. Short term(4-8 weeks) pop from extreme positions by large market participants. Expect violent correction. Oil appears to have peaked for the year, lots of speculation. |
11/10/2009 02:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 4 Tuesday, November 10, 2009 |
Oliver says be careful with copper. Technicals are neutral for copper. We're looking for 4Q09 earnings and better read on inflation in January/February timeframe. Continued sideways movement in equities. Is VIX showing anything? Sentiment indicators? |
11/09/2009 02:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 1 Monday, November 09, 2009 |
John ODonnell previews his alumni event preso. He's bringing the whole slide deck (>100) so that he can weave it all together on Globalization 3.0. John will use these slides to project the market on 2H10. Economy is not improving, we appear to be slipping into Japanese model. Small businesses created 40% of new jobs. Consumption staying weak which implies no recovery soon. |
11/09/2009 02:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 2 Monday, November 09, 2009 |
The credit available to the economy is shrinking. All sectors have excess capacity. Rail industry has 7200 locomotives out of service. John suggest homework for the next quarter is develop a trade plan based on deflation. Vince and John discuss why most folks don't have a plan. Remember, doing nothing is doing something. |
11/09/2009 02:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 3 Monday, November 09, 2009 |
Diana Hill continues her preview of the new OTA Real Estate class. Focused on Traders and their timeframes. Diana has developed a new model on how to deliver this content. She uses specific examples and then in the classroom will identify the existing deals. The goal is to buy instant equity. |
11/09/2009 02:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 4 Monday, November 09, 2009 |
Texas real estate is looking up. Very important before you invest, knowing you is going to buy the asset. Texas has lots of inflow from other states. Flat market is good market to ensure instant equity. Classes start in January. Vince finishes by detailing why the Alumni event is not a sales event. |
11/06/2009 02:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 1 Friday, November 06, 2009 |
Automation issues that arise when you try to transition from manual to automatic trading. John uses the trailing stop to illustrate these automation issues. You have to understand why you're using the trailing stop and that dictates how you automate it. |
11/06/2009 02:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 2 Friday, November 06, 2009 |
John discuss an example of simple trailing stop system of crossover of a 10 period moving average. It's use is to protect equity, not take profits. FOREX 24 hour trading makes it necessary to trade this market different from e-minis. Vince points out the complexity of the UGL ETN prospectus. |
11/06/2009 02:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 3 Friday, November 06, 2009 |
Alumni event details from Vince and John talks about scripting languages on trading platforms and how to use them. Details on Tradestation Radar Range and it's capabilities. |
11/06/2009 02:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 4 Friday, November 06, 2009 |
John discusses the people's perception that trading is like Vegas. Money, glamour, fun! Then him and Vince set things straight. Even though technology has made retail transactions faster, you cannot compete against the technology of the big guys. John gives assessment of Gold. |
11/05/2009 02:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 1 Thursday, November 05, 2009 |
Mike McMahon and Vince discuss how people find their own path. Mike makes the point that the level of financial knowledge is not very high. On top of that, the market and the ability of the participants is increasing. So most folks are behind and getting behind quicker. The market is not a person, so you can't treat it that way. |
11/05/2009 02:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 2 Thursday, November 05, 2009 |
Mike details the list of basic things needed by successful traders. Evaluate where you are now, Everything you buy or do for trading has to answer the question, "How does this make me money?". Be aware of where the market is relation to history. Price has memory. |
11/05/2009 02:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 3 Thursday, November 05, 2009 |
Mike talks about applying the KISS principle to trading. The complexity of the problem dictates the complexity of solution. So, if simple solutions can be consistent thru time, you need to simplify the way you earn income from the market. This is also similar to curve fitting, where you can accurately predict the past, but it's so complex it doesn't predict the future. |
11/05/2009 02:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 4 Thursday, November 05, 2009 |
Just give us the answer, That's the question Mike gets asked. Not directly but it boils down to that request. Newsflash from Mike - It's HARD work. Traders needing a head space alignment need to listen to this segment. |
11/04/2009 01:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 1 Wednesday, November 04, 2009 |
The Pope of Trading, David Buffalo, explains what swing trading is after Vince relates some feedback he got about the show being "just day trading". Vince sets the record straight |
11/04/2009 01:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 2 Wednesday, November 04, 2009 |
David has a recent blog post about the fibs for gold. These extensions typically are .618 of the original low/high range. |
11/04/2009 01:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 3 Wednesday, November 04, 2009 |
Fib confluence of 4 or more are significant events. Gold is currently moving into this pattern at 107. |
11/04/2009 01:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 4 Wednesday, November 04, 2009 |
Neural nets are looking for 3 period window during where the price and momentum turn up to go long. Down to go short. Check for fibs to confirm. INT is showing on the neural net screens. AHL Aspen Insurance Holdings is projected to hit support and rebound. |
11/03/2009 03:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 1 Tuesday, November 03, 2009 |
Vince is seeing that new data points are needed to evaluate where we are and how we're doing economically. Oliver says current economists are using old data or data not related to the important point. It's not whether you're asking questions but are you asking the right questions. Lessons from the Great Depression that stimulus can be taken away too early. Japan provides example of what not to do. |
11/03/2009 03:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 2 Tuesday, November 03, 2009 |
Why do we do Pearlfisher for free. How is your performance so good? We take our hits when we're wrong and we keep it simple. In 1937, there was a dollar devaluation but the net result was all economic activity increased. Oliver thinks this is in our future. Gold is one thing that hedges against dollar deflation. |
11/03/2009 03:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 3 Tuesday, November 03, 2009 |
What are the indicators to use to determine in or out of the market. New highs/new lows peaked a couple of weeks ago. Volatility is the other indicator. Not time to go short because the primary trend is up. VIX crossed 30 last week usually a danger zone. VIX below 25 is preferred to stay long. Sentiment index show the bears outnumber bulls. |
11/03/2009 03:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 4 Tuesday, November 03, 2009 |
At each event, we will be giving away complete Passport membership($25k) and a 7 day class. Must attend to win. Not a sales event. Q4 this year will have the best base because of the terrible earnings last year. Warren Buffet is buying Burlington Northern as a long term bet on the US economy. Gold is a reflection of concern about inflation. |
11/02/2009 02:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 1 Monday, November 02, 2009 |
Huge earnings projections that won't pan out. Global markets also suffering earnings contraction. Growth from cutting expenses versus increased sales. GE is model for global economy. Most home sales in the West are foreclosures. Another wave of option ARMS. |
11/02/2009 02:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 2 Monday, November 02, 2009 |
Most of home prices increase are from actions by banks and the Fed and these actions will not prevent further home price declines. Joblessness rate is slowing but it has major impact of foreclosures. New jobs are coming in but at lower prices(wages). U6 rate is over 16%. Demand destruction is still in place. Is TARP working? Japan is model of what the Fed is trying here. 80% decline in housing prices. John doesn't think a Keynsian solution works here. |
11/02/2009 02:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 3 Monday, November 02, 2009 |
Paralysis by analysis is common to engineers as beginning traders. Trading is not intuitive, It takes great courage to sell into surging demand. Professional traders are net sellers at the top. |
11/02/2009 02:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 4 Monday, November 02, 2009 |
Gold up $15 this morning. John suggested earlier to hold. Short GE and housing ETFs. Take the Dow and divide by Gold. Currently at 9.5. Price all your assets in terms of Gold. Gold is real money that no central bank can print. Smart money use gold as risk parameter. Gold is fire insurance in form of coins, ETFs, options on gold futures. Think of it as how you measure things. You can use other denominator but gold has a 2000 record of value. John not bringing lots of charm but lots of charts on why he's still bearish. |
10/29/2009 03:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 1 Thursday, October 29, 2009 |
Vince and David define "smart people" and the danger they can do to your portfolio.. |
10/30/2009 12:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 1 Friday, October 30, 2009 |
Vince and Oliver discuss the latest Pearlfisher newsletter. Earnings for Q409 will be the driver in 1Q10. Should you be engaged in some investments no matter what the market. Oliver makes the point of be aware of the risks in the portfolio. It's your responsibility because it's your future |
10/30/2009 12:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 2 Friday, October 30, 2009 |
Vince will send a CD "Trading as a Business" free by sending email to vrowe at tradingacademy.com. Setting up the appropriate entity can have a major impact on your profits. Signs of equities slipping 3Q10 due to lower earnings. 10000 mark on the Dow is major resistance from previous highs. Watch the new high/new lows. |
10/30/2009 12:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 3 Friday, October 30, 2009 |
Downside potential is 5 to 10% is nothing major. Commodities have more upside than equities. Easy trades were in April. Take profits on equities. Dollar drives commodities till March 2010. Lumber leads housing about 6 months. If lumber turns up, REITS will be attractive. |
10/30/2009 12:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 4 Friday, October 30, 2009 |
Oliver discusses DXY which is a basket of currencies versus the dollar using a 25 year chart. Dollar is in dangerous territory. Now at 75 with 71 as low. Usually follows 8 year cycle, last peak in 2002, so low next year. We are near major support for the dollar. Do your homework before investing. |
10/29/2009 03:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 2 Thursday, October 29, 2009 |
STEC still has growth. The insider are lowering their risk by selling here. When the earnings come in, the price will return.Could double on next test of support. Watch the institutions. Their interest and earnings will drive price over the longer time frames. |
10/29/2009 03:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 3 Thursday, October 29, 2009 |
The secret word is GOLD. Where's the magic? Jewellery driven from Asia (India, China). Value of dollar could drive commodities prices up. Deflation is from real estate keeping inflation under control. Positive news not moving the market and lack of earnings follow-through. See Pearlfisher newsletter for specifics. Having downside protection is prudent trading. |
10/29/2009 03:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 4 Thursday, October 29, 2009 |
Personal choices lead to our demise 65 % of the time (overeating,smoking, driving, etc.) contrast to 1905 where it was 5%. Personal choices also lead to negative consequences lead to trader's capital death.Have to be willing to adapt to the market. Don't let emotions rule your trading plan. |
10/28/2009 05:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 1 Wednesday, October 28, 2009 |
Vince has Dr J from Optionsmonster.com fill in. in the first segment, Mosaic(MOS) was recommended as a option play of the agricultural sector. |
10/28/2009 05:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 2 Wednesday, October 28, 2009 |
Guy Adame joins Dr J to discuss how CSX and Burlington Northern are acting as leading indicators. The technicals suggest weakness in the market. Time to take profits? Ideally you want to be selling into the rally. |
10/28/2009 05:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 3 Wednesday, October 28, 2009 |
Karl Eggars joins Dr J discussing SLV(Silver ETF) and GLD(Gold ETF). Can trade these as pairs, selling the weak one and buying the strong one. XME down today may suggest prudent to move to the sidelines. XHB(Homebuilders ETF) isn't pure homebuilders. Do your research to understand the components inside the ETF. Time to sell out of the money puts? |
10/28/2009 05:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 4 Wednesday, October 28, 2009 |
Is options volume signaling a reversion to mean? Dr J thinks that there is heavy volume because the institutions are going flat to protect gains to the end of the year. Strong resistance at 1090, if your not short you're in cash. Best way to hedge is get out! Puts are cheap insurance at this point. |
10/27/2009 05:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 1 Tuesday, October 27, 2009 |
Vince and Oliver discuss how the dollar is driving the global bus. Things may get a little bumpy soon. |
10/27/2009 05:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 2 Tuesday, October 27, 2009 |
Oliver provides more detail on the dollar's future. Inflation? Does Japan the last 20 years provide an example for the US. What does this imply for gold?. |
10/27/2009 05:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 3 Tuesday, October 27, 2009 |
Vince talks about the info he has on The Top Ten Lessons from a Thousand Trading Plans. Oliver continues the thread about Japan as model. Does this mean the Fed should be doing something differantly? |
10/27/2009 05:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 4 Tuesday, October 27, 2009 |
Oliver suggests that the latest German election results are positive. Oliver sees a non precious metals supply imbalance and projects the near term impact. |
10/26/2009 05:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 1 Monday, October 26, 2009 |
By establishing an income goal, you then choose the right trading instrument for your capital and time frame. Vince and Tillie Allison discuss the evolution of thier trading instruments as they gained experience. |
10/26/2009 05:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 2 Monday, October 26, 2009 |
Tillie details some of the pros/cons of certain asset classes. Tillie makes the point that the trading instrument is determined by the capital you have available. As you gain experience and capital your asset class mix changes as well. |
10/26/2009 05:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 3 Monday, October 26, 2009 |
Vince and Tillie discuss the advantages of eminis as a trading asset class. eminis because they represent the broader market are also excellent predictors of the general market trend. |
10/26/2009 05:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 4 Monday, October 26, 2009 |
Vince empahasizes how critical it is to know yourself. What's your attention span? how disciplined are you? |
09/04/2009 05:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 4 Friday, September 4, 2009 |
John closes out in this segment with his picks for this economy. |
09/04/2009 05:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 3 Friday, September 4, 2009 |
What trading platform are you using and why? You need to be careful in making a selection, as I have a laundry list of folks that are having a hard time with customer service, email if you wnat this blacklist. |
09/04/2009 05:10 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 2 Friday, September 4, 2009 |
I have been working with a lot of good traders lately that would like to automate their trading models. If you have a model that you would like to automate, please email me and let me see if I don't already have a boiler plate that you can use as a foundation. I program in wealth lab and I have an expert in programming on TradeStation's Easy Language if we need him. |
09/04/2009 05:09 PM |
Vince Rowe Show Part 1 Friday, September 4, 2009 |
John O'Donnell is the guest today where we talk about Gold, and it's role in your portfolio. |